BetPoll

The Goal

BetPoll provides a real-time, data-driven perspective on Australian Federal Elections. While traditional opinion polls offer snapshots in time, betting markets provide a continuous stream of probability data, aggregating the views of thousands of financially invested participants.

We believe that by tracking these market movements, we can offer a unique and often more predictive insight into election outcomes than polling alone.

How It Works

Our system monitors odds from Australia's major bookmakers. We don't just look at who is the favorite; we convert odds into implied probabilities to show you exactly what the market thinks is the likelihood of a Labor or Coalition victory.

• Data Collection: We collect odds daily from multiple major Australian betting agencies.
• Normalization: Odds are converted into implied probabilities (e.g., $2.00 odds = 50% probability).
• De-vigging: We remove the bookmaker's margin ("vig") to find the fair market probability.
• Consensus: We aggregate data across bookmakers to smooth out outliers and find the true market consensus.

Why Betting Markets?

Prediction markets have been shown to be remarkably accurate in forecasting election results. Unlike surveys which can break down without representative sampling and honest responses, betting markets rely on participants putting "skin in the game." This financial incentive drives punters and betting agencies to incorporate all available information (including polls, economic data, news, and of course their personal opinions and beliefs) into their price.

However, markets aren't perfect. They can react to noise and sentiment. That's why BetPoll exists: to visualize the trends over time, helping you separate the signal from the noise.

Usage Policy

We believe in open data and transparency. You are free to share, republish, and adapt the charts and data from BetPoll for any purpose, provided you give appropriate credit.

If you use our data or visualizations in your own reporting, articles, or social media, please cite BetPoll and provide a link back to this website. This ensures your audience can access the most up-to-date context and methodology.